Familiarity breeds awareness
It was somewhere near the month of July'2010 when my mock CAT tests for this season started.. Now, now, now when you have been writin a test series for 3 yrs, nothin new interests you unless you see a b-e-a-utiful chick on the block.. But on that day, apart from a chick, another one too impressed me.. You dont have to get ur imaginations run wild..
I was particularly intrigued by a readin comprehension that came for the test.. And it was based on psychology.. I had to admit that nowadays psychology interests me.. It kinda delves into the intricacies of the human mind and opens myriad possibilities for exploration..
Now, before we get into the specificity of the post, let me make you clear with a definition which will be of use here..
Hindsight Bias:
It refers to the tendency people have to view events as more predictable than they really are. An irrational belief that past outcomes were predictable.
In short: The I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon.
Hindsight bias can be put to good use but the thing is we dont believe our hindsight bias to be true until it happens.. So what is the use anyway? Is there any? That intrigued me..
I was talking with my friend sometime back..
Me: Machi I dunno what, but all exams had been easy last yr.. I dunno how I fucked it up.. Cant imagine I got 2/28 in quants in IIFT last yr.. Would you imagine the cut off for quants was 3?? Outrageous da.. Not tat the paper was so tough, it could have been done.. But I missed that moment..
He: That is usual da.. If I give u any paper of previous yrs, you will invariably do well.. Tats bcos of the familiarity quotient.. U had already seen the paper.. If I give you a new paper you will take time to get acclimatized..
Me: Hmmm.. Whatever..
He: Simple example.. You know your friend is in love.. You have a good time pass with him and you also get a thought like their relationship wont culminate in marriage.. And one fine sunny morning, your friend comes racing to ur house, bangs ur door n tells u 'Machi I broke up with her.. I dunno what I am going to do'.. At that time, before u empathize with your pal, you get that feel 'Wow man!! I knew that was coming'.. At that time you feel your prediction was stronger than it really was.. You did not have the courage to tell your friend but your innate feel had that..
Me: It sounds easy with relationships man.. But not wit exams..
He: Ha ha.. That is your side of the coin!!
Like this, you would have many such incidents.. Have you thought about that??
I can only conclude that hindsight bias is like drivin in the rain.. No matter how sharp your brakes are, you always run the risk of slipping and falling down.. All you can do is damage control.. May be Anti Braking System(ABS) can help :)
I was particularly intrigued by a readin comprehension that came for the test.. And it was based on psychology.. I had to admit that nowadays psychology interests me.. It kinda delves into the intricacies of the human mind and opens myriad possibilities for exploration..
Now, before we get into the specificity of the post, let me make you clear with a definition which will be of use here..
Hindsight Bias:
It refers to the tendency people have to view events as more predictable than they really are. An irrational belief that past outcomes were predictable.
In short: The I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon.
Hindsight bias can be put to good use but the thing is we dont believe our hindsight bias to be true until it happens.. So what is the use anyway? Is there any? That intrigued me..
I was talking with my friend sometime back..
Me: Machi I dunno what, but all exams had been easy last yr.. I dunno how I fucked it up.. Cant imagine I got 2/28 in quants in IIFT last yr.. Would you imagine the cut off for quants was 3?? Outrageous da.. Not tat the paper was so tough, it could have been done.. But I missed that moment..
He: That is usual da.. If I give u any paper of previous yrs, you will invariably do well.. Tats bcos of the familiarity quotient.. U had already seen the paper.. If I give you a new paper you will take time to get acclimatized..
Me: Hmmm.. Whatever..
He: Simple example.. You know your friend is in love.. You have a good time pass with him and you also get a thought like their relationship wont culminate in marriage.. And one fine sunny morning, your friend comes racing to ur house, bangs ur door n tells u 'Machi I broke up with her.. I dunno what I am going to do'.. At that time, before u empathize with your pal, you get that feel 'Wow man!! I knew that was coming'.. At that time you feel your prediction was stronger than it really was.. You did not have the courage to tell your friend but your innate feel had that..
Me: It sounds easy with relationships man.. But not wit exams..
He: Ha ha.. That is your side of the coin!!
Like this, you would have many such incidents.. Have you thought about that??
I can only conclude that hindsight bias is like drivin in the rain.. No matter how sharp your brakes are, you always run the risk of slipping and falling down.. All you can do is damage control.. May be Anti Braking System(ABS) can help :)
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